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SKILL.md
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---
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name: us-stock-analysis
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description: "全面的美国股票分析，包括基本面分析、技术分析、股票比较和投资报告生成。"
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---
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# US Stock Analysis
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## Overview
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Perform comprehensive analysis of US stocks covering fundamental analysis (financials, business quality, valuation), technical analysis (indicators, trends, patterns), peer comparisons, and generate detailed investment reports. Fetch real-time market data via web search tools and apply structured analytical frameworks.
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## Data Sources
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Always use web search tools to gather current market data:
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**Primary Data to Fetch:**
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1. **Current stock price and trading data** (price, volume, 52-week range)
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2. **Financial statements** (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow)
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3. **Key metrics** (P/E, EPS, revenue, margins, debt ratios)
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4. **Analyst ratings and price targets**
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5. **Recent news and developments**
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6. **Peer/competitor data** (for comparisons)
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7. **Technical data** (moving averages, RSI, MACD when available)
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**Search Strategy:**
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- Use ticker symbol + specific data needed (e.g., "AAPL financial metrics 2024")
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- For comprehensive data: Search for earnings reports, investor presentations, or SEC filings
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- For technical data: Search for "AAPL technical analysis" or use financial data sites
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- Always verify data recency (prefer data from last quarter)
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**Quality Sources:**
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- Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, CNBC
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- Company investor relations pages
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- SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q) for detailed financials
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- TradingView, StockCharts for technical data
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## Analysis Types
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This skill supports four types of analysis. Determine which type(s) the user needs:
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1. **Basic Stock Info** - Quick overview with key metrics
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2. **Fundamental Analysis** - Deep dive into business, financials, valuation
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3. **Technical Analysis** - Chart patterns, indicators, trend analysis
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4. **Comprehensive Report** - Complete analysis combining all approaches
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## Analysis Workflows
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### 1. Basic Stock Information
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**When to Use:** User asks for quick overview or basic info
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**Steps:**
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1. Search for current stock data (price, volume, market cap)
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2. Gather key metrics (P/E, EPS, revenue growth, margins)
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3. Get 52-week range and year-to-date performance
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4. Find recent news or major developments
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5. Present in concise summary format
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**Output Format:**
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- Company description (1-2 sentences)
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- Current price and trading metrics
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- Key valuation metrics (table)
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- Recent performance
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- Notable recent news (if any)
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### 2. Fundamental Analysis
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**When to Use:** User wants financial analysis, valuation assessment, or business evaluation
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**Steps:**
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1. **Gather comprehensive financial data:**
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- Revenue, earnings, cash flow (3-5 year trends)
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- Balance sheet metrics (debt, cash, working capital)
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- Profitability metrics (margins, ROE, ROIC)
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2. **Read references/fundamental-analysis.md** for analytical framework
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3. **Read references/financial-metrics.md** for metric definitions and calculations
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4. **Analyze business quality:**
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- Competitive advantages
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- Management track record
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- Industry position
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5. **Perform valuation analysis:**
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- Calculate key ratios (P/E, PEG, P/B, EV/EBITDA)
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- Compare to historical averages
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- Compare to peer group
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- Estimate fair value range
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6. **Identify risks:**
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- Company-specific risks
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- Market/macro risks
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- Red flags from financial data
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7. **Generate output** following references/report-template.md structure
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**Critical Analyses:**
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- Profitability trends (improving/declining margins)
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- Cash flow quality (FCF vs earnings)
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- Balance sheet strength (debt levels, liquidity)
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- Growth sustainability
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- Valuation vs peers and historical average
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### 3. Technical Analysis
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**When to Use:** User asks for technical analysis, chart patterns, or trading signals
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**Steps:**
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1. **Gather technical data:**
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- Current price and recent price action
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- Volume trends
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- Moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 200-day)
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- Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands)
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2. **Read references/technical-analysis.md** for indicator definitions and patterns
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3. **Identify trend:**
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- Uptrend, downtrend, or sideways
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- Strength of trend
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4. **Locate support and resistance levels:**
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- Recent highs and lows
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- Moving average levels
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- Round numbers
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5. **Analyze indicators:**
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- RSI: Overbought (>70) or oversold (<30)
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- MACD: Crossovers and divergences
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- Volume: Confirmation or divergence
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- Bollinger Bands: Squeeze or expansion
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6. **Identify chart patterns:**
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- Reversal patterns (head and shoulders, double top/bottom)
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- Continuation patterns (flags, triangles)
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7. **Generate technical outlook:**
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- Current trend assessment
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- Key levels to watch
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- Risk/reward analysis
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- Short and medium-term outlook
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**Interpretation Guidelines:**
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- Confirm signals with multiple indicators
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- Consider volume for validation
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- Note divergences between price and indicators
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- Always identify risk levels (stop-loss)
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### 4. Comprehensive Investment Report
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**When to Use:** User asks for detailed report, investment recommendation, or complete analysis
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**Steps:**
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1. **Perform data gathering** (as in Basic Info)
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2. **Execute fundamental analysis** (follow workflow above)
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3. **Execute technical analysis** (follow workflow above)
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4. **Read references/report-template.md** for complete report structure
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5. **Synthesize findings:**
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- Integrate fundamental and technical insights
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- Develop bull and bear cases
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- Assess risk/reward
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6. **Generate recommendation:**
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- Buy/Hold/Sell rating
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- Target price with timeframe
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- Conviction level
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- Entry strategy
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7. **Create formatted report** following template structure
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**Report Must Include:**
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- Executive summary with recommendation
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- Company overview
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- Investment thesis (bull and bear cases)
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- Fundamental analysis section
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- Technical analysis section
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- Valuation analysis
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- Risk assessment
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- Catalysts and timeline
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- Conclusion
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## Stock Comparison Analysis
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**When to Use:** User asks to compare two or more stocks (e.g., "compare AAPL vs MSFT")
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**Steps:**
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1. **Gather data for all stocks:**
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- Follow data gathering steps for each ticker
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- Ensure comparable timeframes
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2. **Read references/fundamental-analysis.md** and references/financial-metrics.md
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3. **Create side-by-side comparison:**
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- Business models comparison
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- Financial metrics table (all key ratios)
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- Valuation metrics table
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- Growth rates comparison
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- Profitability comparison
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- Balance sheet strength
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4. **Identify relative strengths:**
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- Where each company excels
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- Quantified advantages
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5. **Technical comparison:**
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- Relative strength
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- Momentum comparison
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- Which is in better technical position
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6. **Generate recommendation:**
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- Which stock is more attractive and why
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- Consider both fundamental and technical factors
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- Portfolio allocation suggestion
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- Risk-adjusted return assessment
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**Output Format:** Follow "Comparison Report Structure" in references/report-template.md
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## Output Guidelines
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**General Principles:**
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- Use tables for financial data and comparisons (easy to scan)
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- Bold key metrics and findings
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- Include data sources and dates
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- Quantify whenever possible
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- Present both bull and bear perspectives
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- Be clear about assumptions and uncertainties
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**Formatting:**
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- **Headers** for clear section separation
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- **Tables** for metrics, comparisons, historical data
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- **Bullet points** for lists, factors, risks
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- **Bold text** for key findings, important metrics
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- **Percentages** for growth rates, returns, margins
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- **Currency** formatted consistently ($B for billions, $M for millions)
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**Tone:**
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- Objective and balanced
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- Acknowledge uncertainty
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- Support claims with data
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- Avoid hyperbole
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- Present risks clearly
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## Reference Files
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Load these references as needed during analysis:
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**references/technical-analysis.md**
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- When: Performing technical analysis or interpreting indicators
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- Contains: Indicator definitions, chart patterns, support/resistance concepts, analysis workflow
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**references/fundamental-analysis.md**
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- When: Performing fundamental analysis or business evaluation
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- Contains: Business quality assessment, financial health analysis, valuation frameworks, risk assessment, red flags
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**references/financial-metrics.md**
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- When: Need definitions or calculation methods for financial ratios
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- Contains: All key metrics with formulas (profitability, valuation, growth, liquidity, leverage, efficiency, cash flow)
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**references/report-template.md**
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- When: Creating comprehensive report or comparison
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- Contains: Complete report structure, formatting guidelines, section templates, comparison format
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## Example Queries
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**Basic Info:**
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- "What's the current price of AAPL?"
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- "Give me key metrics for Tesla"
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- "Quick overview of Microsoft stock"
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**Fundamental:**
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- "Analyze NVDA's financials"
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- "Is Amazon overvalued?"
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- "Evaluate Apple's business quality"
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- "What's Google's debt situation?"
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**Technical:**
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- "Technical analysis of TSLA"
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- "Is Netflix oversold?"
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- "Show me support levels for AAPL"
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- "What's the trend for AMD?"
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**Comprehensive:**
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- "Complete analysis of Microsoft"
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- "Give me a full report on AAPL"
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- "Should I invest in Tesla? Give me detailed analysis"
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**Comparison:**
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- "Compare AAPL vs MSFT"
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- "Tesla vs Nvidia - which is better?"
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- "Analyze Meta vs Google"
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_meta.json
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_meta.json
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{
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"ownerId": "kn7agf701n3afzzbq8ge0wa8k1809wm4",
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"slug": "us-stock-analysis",
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"version": "0.1.1",
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"publishedAt": 1769870446772
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}
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references/financial-metrics.md
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references/financial-metrics.md
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# Financial Metrics Reference
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## Profitability Metrics
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**Gross Profit Margin**
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- Formula: (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100
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- Measures: Production efficiency and pricing power
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- Higher is better; compare to industry average
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**Operating Profit Margin**
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- Formula: Operating Income / Revenue × 100
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- Measures: Operational efficiency
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- Excludes financing and tax effects
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**Net Profit Margin**
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- Formula: Net Income / Revenue × 100
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- Measures: Overall profitability after all expenses
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- Bottom line efficiency
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**Return on Equity (ROE)**
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- Formula: Net Income / Shareholders' Equity × 100
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- Measures: Profitability relative to shareholder investment
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- DuPont Analysis: ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
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**Return on Assets (ROA)**
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- Formula: Net Income / Total Assets × 100
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- Measures: Efficiency in using assets to generate profit
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**Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)**
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- Formula: NOPAT / Invested Capital × 100
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- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Tax
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- Invested Capital = Total Debt + Total Equity - Cash
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- Measures: Return on all capital (debt + equity)
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## Valuation Metrics
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**Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**
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- Formula: Stock Price / Earnings Per Share
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- Trailing P/E: Uses past 12 months earnings
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- Forward P/E: Uses estimated future earnings
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- Interpretation: Higher P/E = higher growth expectations or overvaluation
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**Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio**
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- Formula: P/E Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate
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- Interpretation: PEG < 1 potentially undervalued; PEG > 1 potentially overvalued
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**Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**
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- Formula: Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
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- Book Value = Total Assets - Total Liabilities
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- Useful for asset-heavy industries
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**Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio**
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- Formula: Market Cap / Total Revenue
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- Useful for unprofitable companies or comparing revenue multiples
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**Enterprise Value (EV)**
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- Formula: Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
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- Represents total company value
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**EV/EBITDA**
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- Formula: Enterprise Value / EBITDA
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- EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization
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- Capital structure neutral valuation metric
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**EV/Sales**
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- Formula: Enterprise Value / Revenue
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- Useful when comparing companies with different profitability
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**Dividend Yield**
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- Formula: Annual Dividend Per Share / Stock Price × 100
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- Measures: Income return from stock
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## Growth Metrics
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**Revenue Growth Rate**
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- Formula: (Current Revenue - Prior Revenue) / Prior Revenue × 100
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- YoY (Year-over-Year), QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter)
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**Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth**
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- Formula: (Current EPS - Prior EPS) / Prior EPS × 100
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- Track both reported and adjusted EPS
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**Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)**
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- Formula: (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1/Years) - 1
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- Smoothed growth rate over multiple years
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## Liquidity Metrics
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**Current Ratio**
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- Formula: Current Assets / Current Liabilities
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- Measures: Short-term liquidity
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- > 1.5 generally considered healthy
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**Quick Ratio (Acid-Test)**
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- Formula: (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities
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- More conservative than current ratio
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- > 1.0 generally considered healthy
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||||||
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**Cash Ratio**
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- Formula: Cash and Cash Equivalents / Current Liabilities
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- Most conservative liquidity measure
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## Leverage Metrics
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**Debt-to-Equity (D/E) Ratio**
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- Formula: Total Debt / Total Equity
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- Measures: Financial leverage
|
||||||
|
- Industry-dependent; lower generally safer
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Debt-to-Assets Ratio**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Total Debt / Total Assets
|
||||||
|
- Shows proportion of assets financed by debt
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Interest Coverage Ratio**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: EBIT / Interest Expense
|
||||||
|
- Measures: Ability to pay interest
|
||||||
|
- > 2.5 generally considered safe
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Efficiency Metrics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Asset Turnover**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Revenue / Average Total Assets
|
||||||
|
- Measures: Efficiency in using assets to generate sales
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Inventory Turnover**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: COGS / Average Inventory
|
||||||
|
- Higher = more efficient inventory management
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Receivables Turnover**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Revenue / Average Accounts Receivable
|
||||||
|
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) = 365 / Receivables Turnover
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Cash Flow Metrics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Free Cash Flow (FCF)**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
|
||||||
|
- Available cash for dividends, buybacks, debt repayment
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**FCF Yield**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Free Cash Flow Per Share / Stock Price × 100
|
||||||
|
- Similar to dividend yield but for total cash generation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Cash Conversion Rate**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Free Cash Flow / Net Income
|
||||||
|
- Should be close to or > 100%
|
||||||
|
- Lower ratio may indicate earnings quality issues
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Per Share Metrics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Earnings Per Share (EPS)**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Net Income / Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
|
||||||
|
- Basic EPS vs Diluted EPS (includes options, convertibles)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Book Value Per Share**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: (Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares Outstanding
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Cash Flow Per Share**
|
||||||
|
- Formula: Operating Cash Flow / Shares Outstanding
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Share Metrics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Shares Outstanding**
|
||||||
|
- Total shares issued and held by investors
|
||||||
|
- Track dilution over time
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Float**
|
||||||
|
- Shares available for public trading
|
||||||
|
- Excludes insider and restricted shares
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Share Buybacks**
|
||||||
|
- Track net share reduction/increase
|
||||||
|
- Buybacks can boost EPS without earnings growth
|
||||||
129
references/fundamental-analysis.md
Normal file
129
references/fundamental-analysis.md
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
|
|||||||
|
# Fundamental Analysis Reference
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Analysis Framework
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 1. Business Quality Assessment
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Competitive Advantages (Moats)**
|
||||||
|
- Brand strength
|
||||||
|
- Network effects
|
||||||
|
- Cost advantages
|
||||||
|
- Switching costs
|
||||||
|
- Patents and intellectual property
|
||||||
|
- Regulatory barriers
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Management Quality**
|
||||||
|
- Track record of capital allocation
|
||||||
|
- Insider ownership
|
||||||
|
- Compensation structure alignment
|
||||||
|
- Communication transparency
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Business Model**
|
||||||
|
- Revenue streams diversity
|
||||||
|
- Scalability
|
||||||
|
- Margin sustainability
|
||||||
|
- Customer concentration risk
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 2. Financial Health Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Profitability Analysis**
|
||||||
|
- Gross margin trends
|
||||||
|
- Operating margin trends
|
||||||
|
- Net margin trends
|
||||||
|
- Return on Equity (ROE) trends
|
||||||
|
- Return on Assets (ROA) trends
|
||||||
|
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) trends
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Growth Analysis**
|
||||||
|
- Revenue growth (YoY, QoQ)
|
||||||
|
- Earnings growth (YoY, QoQ)
|
||||||
|
- Free cash flow growth
|
||||||
|
- Market share trends
|
||||||
|
- Geographic/segment growth breakdown
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Balance Sheet Strength**
|
||||||
|
- Debt-to-Equity ratio
|
||||||
|
- Current ratio
|
||||||
|
- Quick ratio
|
||||||
|
- Interest coverage ratio
|
||||||
|
- Cash position vs debt
|
||||||
|
- Working capital trends
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Cash Flow Analysis**
|
||||||
|
- Operating cash flow consistency
|
||||||
|
- Free cash flow (OCF - CapEx)
|
||||||
|
- Cash conversion rate
|
||||||
|
- Capital expenditure trends
|
||||||
|
- Dividend sustainability
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 3. Valuation Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Relative Valuation Metrics**
|
||||||
|
- P/E ratio (vs historical, vs peers, vs sector)
|
||||||
|
- Forward P/E
|
||||||
|
- PEG ratio (P/E / growth rate)
|
||||||
|
- P/B ratio (Price-to-Book)
|
||||||
|
- P/S ratio (Price-to-Sales)
|
||||||
|
- EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value / EBITDA)
|
||||||
|
- EV/Sales
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Absolute Valuation**
|
||||||
|
- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) principles
|
||||||
|
- Estimate intrinsic value range
|
||||||
|
- Margin of safety calculation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 4. Industry and Market Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Industry Dynamics**
|
||||||
|
- Industry growth rate
|
||||||
|
- Industry lifecycle stage
|
||||||
|
- Competitive landscape
|
||||||
|
- Barriers to entry
|
||||||
|
- Regulatory environment
|
||||||
|
- Technological disruption risk
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Market Position**
|
||||||
|
- Market share
|
||||||
|
- Competitive positioning
|
||||||
|
- Customer loyalty metrics
|
||||||
|
- Pricing power
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 5. Risk Assessment
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Company-Specific Risks**
|
||||||
|
- Key person dependency
|
||||||
|
- Customer concentration
|
||||||
|
- Supplier concentration
|
||||||
|
- Product concentration
|
||||||
|
- Litigation risks
|
||||||
|
- Regulatory risks
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Market Risks**
|
||||||
|
- Economic sensitivity
|
||||||
|
- Interest rate sensitivity
|
||||||
|
- Currency exposure
|
||||||
|
- Commodity price exposure
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Analysis Workflow
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. **Understand the business** (what they do, how they make money)
|
||||||
|
2. **Assess competitive position** (moats, market share)
|
||||||
|
3. **Analyze financial statements** (trends over 3-5 years)
|
||||||
|
4. **Calculate key metrics** (profitability, growth, leverage)
|
||||||
|
5. **Compare to peers** (relative positioning)
|
||||||
|
6. **Value the company** (multiple approaches)
|
||||||
|
7. **Identify risks** (company and market level)
|
||||||
|
8. **Determine investment thesis** (bull and bear cases)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Red Flags to Watch For
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Declining margins
|
||||||
|
- Consistently negative or declining free cash flow
|
||||||
|
- Rising debt without revenue growth
|
||||||
|
- Frequent non-GAAP adjustments
|
||||||
|
- High executive turnover
|
||||||
|
- Customer concentration > 10% from single customer
|
||||||
|
- Inconsistent accounting changes
|
||||||
|
- Poor cash conversion (earnings growth >> cash flow growth)
|
||||||
|
- Deteriorating working capital
|
||||||
|
- Rising accounts receivable/inventory faster than revenue
|
||||||
207
references/report-template.md
Normal file
207
references/report-template.md
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,207 @@
|
|||||||
|
# Stock Analysis Report Template
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Report Structure
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 1. Executive Summary
|
||||||
|
Brief 2-3 paragraph overview that can stand alone:
|
||||||
|
- Company overview (1 sentence)
|
||||||
|
- Investment thesis (bull case in 2-3 sentences)
|
||||||
|
- Key risks (1-2 sentences)
|
||||||
|
- Valuation summary (current vs fair value estimate)
|
||||||
|
- Recommendation (Buy/Hold/Sell) with conviction level
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 2. Company Overview
|
||||||
|
- **Business Description**: What the company does, main products/services
|
||||||
|
- **Industry**: Sector classification and industry dynamics
|
||||||
|
- **Market Position**: Market cap, rank in industry
|
||||||
|
- **Key Statistics**: Quick reference table
|
||||||
|
- Ticker, Exchange
|
||||||
|
- Market Cap
|
||||||
|
- Current Price
|
||||||
|
- 52-Week Range
|
||||||
|
- Average Volume
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 3. Investment Thesis
|
||||||
|
**Bull Case** (Why to invest):
|
||||||
|
- 3-5 strongest positive factors
|
||||||
|
- Support each with data/evidence
|
||||||
|
- Quantify when possible
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Bear Case** (Risks and concerns):
|
||||||
|
- 3-5 main risk factors
|
||||||
|
- Alternative scenarios where investment doesn't work
|
||||||
|
- Probability assessment when possible
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 4. Fundamental Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Business Quality**
|
||||||
|
- Competitive advantages/moats
|
||||||
|
- Management quality assessment
|
||||||
|
- Business model sustainability
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Financial Performance** (Use tables for clarity)
|
||||||
|
- Revenue trends (3-5 years)
|
||||||
|
- Profitability metrics trends
|
||||||
|
- Balance sheet strength
|
||||||
|
- Cash flow analysis
|
||||||
|
- Key ratios
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Growth Analysis**
|
||||||
|
- Historical growth rates
|
||||||
|
- Growth drivers
|
||||||
|
- Future growth prospects
|
||||||
|
- Market opportunity size
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 5. Valuation Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Current Valuation Metrics** (Table format)
|
||||||
|
- P/E (current, forward, 5-year avg)
|
||||||
|
- PEG
|
||||||
|
- P/B
|
||||||
|
- P/S
|
||||||
|
- EV/EBITDA
|
||||||
|
- EV/Sales
|
||||||
|
- Dividend Yield (if applicable)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Peer Comparison** (Table format)
|
||||||
|
Compare key metrics against 3-5 direct competitors
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Fair Value Estimate**
|
||||||
|
- Valuation methodology used
|
||||||
|
- Key assumptions
|
||||||
|
- Fair value range (conservative to optimistic)
|
||||||
|
- Margin of safety vs current price
|
||||||
|
- Target price with timeframe
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 6. Technical Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Trend Analysis**
|
||||||
|
- Current trend direction
|
||||||
|
- Key support/resistance levels
|
||||||
|
- Moving average positions
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Indicator Summary**
|
||||||
|
- RSI reading and interpretation
|
||||||
|
- MACD status
|
||||||
|
- Volume trends
|
||||||
|
- Other relevant indicators
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Chart Patterns**
|
||||||
|
- Notable patterns forming or completed
|
||||||
|
- Breakout/breakdown levels to watch
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Technical Outlook**
|
||||||
|
- Short-term (1-3 months)
|
||||||
|
- Medium-term (3-6 months)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 7. Risk Assessment
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Company-Specific Risks** (Prioritized)
|
||||||
|
1. [Highest risk with impact and probability]
|
||||||
|
2. [Second risk]
|
||||||
|
3. [Third risk]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Market/Macro Risks**
|
||||||
|
- Economic sensitivity
|
||||||
|
- Interest rate impact
|
||||||
|
- Regulatory changes
|
||||||
|
- Industry disruption
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Risk Mitigation**
|
||||||
|
- Company's risk management
|
||||||
|
- Diversification considerations
|
||||||
|
- Position sizing recommendations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 8. Catalysts and Timeline
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Positive Catalysts** (with expected timing)
|
||||||
|
- Upcoming events that could drive price up
|
||||||
|
- Product launches, earnings, regulatory approvals
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Negative Risks** (with timing)
|
||||||
|
- Events that could drive price down
|
||||||
|
- Lockup expirations, debt maturities
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 9. Recommendation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Rating**: Buy / Hold / Sell
|
||||||
|
**Conviction Level**: High / Medium / Low
|
||||||
|
**Target Price**: $XX (timeframe: X months)
|
||||||
|
**Upside/Downside**: +/-XX%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**For Buy Recommendations**:
|
||||||
|
- Entry strategy (all at once, DCA, wait for pullback)
|
||||||
|
- Position sizing suggestion
|
||||||
|
- Stop-loss consideration
|
||||||
|
- Target prices (multiple levels)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**For Hold Recommendations**:
|
||||||
|
- Conditions to upgrade to Buy
|
||||||
|
- Conditions to downgrade to Sell
|
||||||
|
- Monitoring priorities
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**For Sell Recommendations**:
|
||||||
|
- Exit strategy (immediate, gradual)
|
||||||
|
- Alternative investments to consider
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 10. Conclusion
|
||||||
|
- Summarize key points (3-4 bullets)
|
||||||
|
- Reiterate recommendation
|
||||||
|
- Next review date or monitoring triggers
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Formatting Guidelines
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Use Tables for:**
|
||||||
|
- Financial data comparisons
|
||||||
|
- Peer comparisons
|
||||||
|
- Key statistics
|
||||||
|
- Valuation metrics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Use Bullet Points for:**
|
||||||
|
- Lists of factors/risks
|
||||||
|
- Key highlights
|
||||||
|
- Qualitative assessments
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Use Headers to:**
|
||||||
|
- Clearly separate sections
|
||||||
|
- Make report scannable
|
||||||
|
- Enable quick navigation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Data Presentation:**
|
||||||
|
- Always include timeframe context
|
||||||
|
- Show trends (arrows, YoY%)
|
||||||
|
- Cite sources for all data
|
||||||
|
- Use consistent formatting (e.g., $B for billions)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Writing Style:**
|
||||||
|
- Be direct and concise
|
||||||
|
- Quantify when possible
|
||||||
|
- Avoid jargon unless necessary
|
||||||
|
- Support opinions with evidence
|
||||||
|
- Balance bullish and bearish perspectives
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Comparison Report Structure
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For "Compare Stock A vs Stock B" requests:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 1. Side-by-Side Overview Table
|
||||||
|
Company metrics in columns for easy comparison
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 2. Relative Strengths Analysis
|
||||||
|
- Where each company excels
|
||||||
|
- Quantified advantages
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 3. Valuation Comparison
|
||||||
|
- Metrics comparison table
|
||||||
|
- Which appears cheaper and why
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 4. Technical Comparison
|
||||||
|
- Relative strength analysis
|
||||||
|
- Chart pattern comparison
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### 5. Recommendation
|
||||||
|
- Which to buy/prefer and why
|
||||||
|
- Portfolio allocation suggestion
|
||||||
|
- Risk-adjusted return assessment
|
||||||
93
references/technical-analysis.md
Normal file
93
references/technical-analysis.md
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
|
|||||||
|
# Technical Analysis Reference
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Key Technical Indicators
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Trend Indicators
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Moving Averages (MA)**
|
||||||
|
- SMA (Simple Moving Average): Average price over N periods
|
||||||
|
- EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Weighted towards recent prices
|
||||||
|
- Common periods: 20-day, 50-day, 200-day
|
||||||
|
- Golden Cross: 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA (bullish)
|
||||||
|
- Death Cross: 50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA (bearish)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**
|
||||||
|
- MACD Line: 12-day EMA - 26-day EMA
|
||||||
|
- Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD
|
||||||
|
- Histogram: MACD - Signal
|
||||||
|
- Bullish: MACD crosses above signal line
|
||||||
|
- Bearish: MACD crosses below signal line
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Momentum Indicators
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**RSI (Relative Strength Index)**
|
||||||
|
- Range: 0-100
|
||||||
|
- Overbought: > 70
|
||||||
|
- Oversold: < 30
|
||||||
|
- Divergence: Price makes new high/low but RSI doesn't (reversal signal)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Stochastic Oscillator**
|
||||||
|
- %K and %D lines
|
||||||
|
- Range: 0-100
|
||||||
|
- Overbought: > 80
|
||||||
|
- Oversold: < 20
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Volatility Indicators
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Bollinger Bands**
|
||||||
|
- Middle Band: 20-day SMA
|
||||||
|
- Upper Band: Middle + (2 × standard deviation)
|
||||||
|
- Lower Band: Middle - (2 × standard deviation)
|
||||||
|
- Squeeze: Bands narrow (low volatility, potential breakout)
|
||||||
|
- Expansion: Bands widen (high volatility)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**ATR (Average True Range)**
|
||||||
|
- Measures volatility
|
||||||
|
- Higher ATR = higher volatility
|
||||||
|
- Used for stop-loss placement
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Volume Indicators
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**OBV (On-Balance Volume)**
|
||||||
|
- Cumulative volume indicator
|
||||||
|
- Rising OBV + rising price = strong uptrend
|
||||||
|
- Divergence between OBV and price = potential reversal
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Volume Moving Average**
|
||||||
|
- Compare current volume to average
|
||||||
|
- High volume breakout = stronger signal
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Chart Patterns
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Reversal Patterns
|
||||||
|
- Head and Shoulders (bearish)
|
||||||
|
- Inverse Head and Shoulders (bullish)
|
||||||
|
- Double Top (bearish)
|
||||||
|
- Double Bottom (bullish)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Continuation Patterns
|
||||||
|
- Flags and Pennants
|
||||||
|
- Triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical)
|
||||||
|
- Rectangles
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Support and Resistance
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Support**: Price level where buying pressure prevents further decline
|
||||||
|
**Resistance**: Price level where selling pressure prevents further rise
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Key Levels to Identify:**
|
||||||
|
- Previous highs and lows
|
||||||
|
- Round numbers (psychological levels)
|
||||||
|
- Moving averages
|
||||||
|
- Fibonacci retracement levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Analysis Workflow
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. **Identify the trend** (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
|
||||||
|
2. **Locate support/resistance levels**
|
||||||
|
3. **Check multiple timeframes** (daily, weekly, monthly)
|
||||||
|
4. **Confirm with indicators** (don't rely on single indicator)
|
||||||
|
5. **Look for divergences** (price vs indicators)
|
||||||
|
6. **Assess volume** (confirms trend strength)
|
||||||
|
7. **Identify chart patterns**
|
||||||
|
8. **Determine risk/reward ratio**
|
||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user