commit 877cf186dc770e48fe35383f1ab74cab66bf900e Author: zlei9 Date: Sun Mar 29 14:35:48 2026 +0800 Initial commit with translated description diff --git a/SKILL.md b/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f04ba6 --- /dev/null +++ b/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,294 @@ +--- +name: us-stock-analysis +description: "全面的美国股票分析，包括基本面分析、技术分析、股票比较和投资报告生成。" +--- + +# US Stock Analysis + +## Overview + +Perform comprehensive analysis of US stocks covering fundamental analysis (financials, business quality, valuation), technical analysis (indicators, trends, patterns), peer comparisons, and generate detailed investment reports. Fetch real-time market data via web search tools and apply structured analytical frameworks. + +## Data Sources + +Always use web search tools to gather current market data: + +**Primary Data to Fetch:** +1. **Current stock price and trading data** (price, volume, 52-week range) +2. **Financial statements** (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow) +3. **Key metrics** (P/E, EPS, revenue, margins, debt ratios) +4. **Analyst ratings and price targets** +5. **Recent news and developments** +6. **Peer/competitor data** (for comparisons) +7. **Technical data** (moving averages, RSI, MACD when available) + +**Search Strategy:** +- Use ticker symbol + specific data needed (e.g., "AAPL financial metrics 2024") +- For comprehensive data: Search for earnings reports, investor presentations, or SEC filings +- For technical data: Search for "AAPL technical analysis" or use financial data sites +- Always verify data recency (prefer data from last quarter) + +**Quality Sources:** +- Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, CNBC +- Company investor relations pages +- SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q) for detailed financials +- TradingView, StockCharts for technical data + +## Analysis Types + +This skill supports four types of analysis. Determine which type(s) the user needs: + +1. **Basic Stock Info** - Quick overview with key metrics +2. **Fundamental Analysis** - Deep dive into business, financials, valuation +3. **Technical Analysis** - Chart patterns, indicators, trend analysis +4. **Comprehensive Report** - Complete analysis combining all approaches + +## Analysis Workflows + +### 1. Basic Stock Information + +**When to Use:** User asks for quick overview or basic info + +**Steps:** +1. Search for current stock data (price, volume, market cap) +2. Gather key metrics (P/E, EPS, revenue growth, margins) +3. Get 52-week range and year-to-date performance +4. Find recent news or major developments +5. Present in concise summary format + +**Output Format:** +- Company description (1-2 sentences) +- Current price and trading metrics +- Key valuation metrics (table) +- Recent performance +- Notable recent news (if any) + +### 2. Fundamental Analysis + +**When to Use:** User wants financial analysis, valuation assessment, or business evaluation + +**Steps:** +1. **Gather comprehensive financial data:** + - Revenue, earnings, cash flow (3-5 year trends) + - Balance sheet metrics (debt, cash, working capital) + - Profitability metrics (margins, ROE, ROIC) + +2. **Read references/fundamental-analysis.md** for analytical framework + +3. **Read references/financial-metrics.md** for metric definitions and calculations + +4. **Analyze business quality:** + - Competitive advantages + - Management track record + - Industry position + +5. **Perform valuation analysis:** + - Calculate key ratios (P/E, PEG, P/B, EV/EBITDA) + - Compare to historical averages + - Compare to peer group + - Estimate fair value range + +6. **Identify risks:** + - Company-specific risks + - Market/macro risks + - Red flags from financial data + +7. **Generate output** following references/report-template.md structure + +**Critical Analyses:** +- Profitability trends (improving/declining margins) +- Cash flow quality (FCF vs earnings) +- Balance sheet strength (debt levels, liquidity) +- Growth sustainability +- Valuation vs peers and historical average + +### 3. Technical Analysis + +**When to Use:** User asks for technical analysis, chart patterns, or trading signals + +**Steps:** +1. **Gather technical data:** + - Current price and recent price action + - Volume trends + - Moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 200-day) + - Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands) + +2. **Read references/technical-analysis.md** for indicator definitions and patterns + +3. **Identify trend:** + - Uptrend, downtrend, or sideways + - Strength of trend + +4. **Locate support and resistance levels:** + - Recent highs and lows + - Moving average levels + - Round numbers + +5. **Analyze indicators:** + - RSI: Overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) + - MACD: Crossovers and divergences + - Volume: Confirmation or divergence + - Bollinger Bands: Squeeze or expansion + +6. **Identify chart patterns:** + - Reversal patterns (head and shoulders, double top/bottom) + - Continuation patterns (flags, triangles) + +7. **Generate technical outlook:** + - Current trend assessment + - Key levels to watch + - Risk/reward analysis + - Short and medium-term outlook + +**Interpretation Guidelines:** +- Confirm signals with multiple indicators +- Consider volume for validation +- Note divergences between price and indicators +- Always identify risk levels (stop-loss) + +### 4. Comprehensive Investment Report + +**When to Use:** User asks for detailed report, investment recommendation, or complete analysis + +**Steps:** +1. **Perform data gathering** (as in Basic Info) + +2. **Execute fundamental analysis** (follow workflow above) + +3. **Execute technical analysis** (follow workflow above) + +4. **Read references/report-template.md** for complete report structure + +5. **Synthesize findings:** + - Integrate fundamental and technical insights + - Develop bull and bear cases + - Assess risk/reward + +6. **Generate recommendation:** + - Buy/Hold/Sell rating + - Target price with timeframe + - Conviction level + - Entry strategy + +7. **Create formatted report** following template structure + +**Report Must Include:** +- Executive summary with recommendation +- Company overview +- Investment thesis (bull and bear cases) +- Fundamental analysis section +- Technical analysis section +- Valuation analysis +- Risk assessment +- Catalysts and timeline +- Conclusion + +## Stock Comparison Analysis + +**When to Use:** User asks to compare two or more stocks (e.g., "compare AAPL vs MSFT") + +**Steps:** +1. **Gather data for all stocks:** + - Follow data gathering steps for each ticker + - Ensure comparable timeframes + +2. **Read references/fundamental-analysis.md** and references/financial-metrics.md + +3. **Create side-by-side comparison:** + - Business models comparison + - Financial metrics table (all key ratios) + - Valuation metrics table + - Growth rates comparison + - Profitability comparison + - Balance sheet strength + +4. **Identify relative strengths:** + - Where each company excels + - Quantified advantages + +5. **Technical comparison:** + - Relative strength + - Momentum comparison + - Which is in better technical position + +6. **Generate recommendation:** + - Which stock is more attractive and why + - Consider both fundamental and technical factors + - Portfolio allocation suggestion + - Risk-adjusted return assessment + +**Output Format:** Follow "Comparison Report Structure" in references/report-template.md + +## Output Guidelines + +**General Principles:** +- Use tables for financial data and comparisons (easy to scan) +- Bold key metrics and findings +- Include data sources and dates +- Quantify whenever possible +- Present both bull and bear perspectives +- Be clear about assumptions and uncertainties + +**Formatting:** +- **Headers** for clear section separation +- **Tables** for metrics, comparisons, historical data +- **Bullet points** for lists, factors, risks +- **Bold text** for key findings, important metrics +- **Percentages** for growth rates, returns, margins +- **Currency** formatted consistently ($B for billions, $M for millions) + +**Tone:** +- Objective and balanced +- Acknowledge uncertainty +- Support claims with data +- Avoid hyperbole +- Present risks clearly + +## Reference Files + +Load these references as needed during analysis: + +**references/technical-analysis.md** +- When: Performing technical analysis or interpreting indicators +- Contains: Indicator definitions, chart patterns, support/resistance concepts, analysis workflow + +**references/fundamental-analysis.md** +- When: Performing fundamental analysis or business evaluation +- Contains: Business quality assessment, financial health analysis, valuation frameworks, risk assessment, red flags + +**references/financial-metrics.md** +- When: Need definitions or calculation methods for financial ratios +- Contains: All key metrics with formulas (profitability, valuation, growth, liquidity, leverage, efficiency, cash flow) + +**references/report-template.md** +- When: Creating comprehensive report or comparison +- Contains: Complete report structure, formatting guidelines, section templates, comparison format + +## Example Queries + +**Basic Info:** +- "What's the current price of AAPL?" +- "Give me key metrics for Tesla" +- "Quick overview of Microsoft stock" + +**Fundamental:** +- "Analyze NVDA's financials" +- "Is Amazon overvalued?" +- "Evaluate Apple's business quality" +- "What's Google's debt situation?" + +**Technical:** +- "Technical analysis of TSLA" +- "Is Netflix oversold?" +- "Show me support levels for AAPL" +- "What's the trend for AMD?" + +**Comprehensive:** +- "Complete analysis of Microsoft" +- "Give me a full report on AAPL" +- "Should I invest in Tesla? Give me detailed analysis" + +**Comparison:** +- "Compare AAPL vs MSFT" +- "Tesla vs Nvidia - which is better?" +- "Analyze Meta vs Google" diff --git a/_meta.json b/_meta.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b9f10e --- /dev/null +++ b/_meta.json @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +{ + "ownerId": "kn7agf701n3afzzbq8ge0wa8k1809wm4", + "slug": "us-stock-analysis", + "version": "0.1.1", + "publishedAt": 1769870446772 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/references/financial-metrics.md b/references/financial-metrics.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f9617a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/references/financial-metrics.md @@ -0,0 +1,172 @@ +# Financial Metrics Reference + +## Profitability Metrics + +**Gross Profit Margin** +- Formula: (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100 +- Measures: Production efficiency and pricing power +- Higher is better; compare to industry average + +**Operating Profit Margin** +- Formula: Operating Income / Revenue × 100 +- Measures: Operational efficiency +- Excludes financing and tax effects + +**Net Profit Margin** +- Formula: Net Income / Revenue × 100 +- Measures: Overall profitability after all expenses +- Bottom line efficiency + +**Return on Equity (ROE)** +- Formula: Net Income / Shareholders' Equity × 100 +- Measures: Profitability relative to shareholder investment +- DuPont Analysis: ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier + +**Return on Assets (ROA)** +- Formula: Net Income / Total Assets × 100 +- Measures: Efficiency in using assets to generate profit + +**Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)** +- Formula: NOPAT / Invested Capital × 100 +- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Tax +- Invested Capital = Total Debt + Total Equity - Cash +- Measures: Return on all capital (debt + equity) + +## Valuation Metrics + +**Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio** +- Formula: Stock Price / Earnings Per Share +- Trailing P/E: Uses past 12 months earnings +- Forward P/E: Uses estimated future earnings +- Interpretation: Higher P/E = higher growth expectations or overvaluation + +**Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio** +- Formula: P/E Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate +- Interpretation: PEG < 1 potentially undervalued; PEG > 1 potentially overvalued + +**Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio** +- Formula: Stock Price / Book Value Per Share +- Book Value = Total Assets - Total Liabilities +- Useful for asset-heavy industries + +**Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio** +- Formula: Market Cap / Total Revenue +- Useful for unprofitable companies or comparing revenue multiples + +**Enterprise Value (EV)** +- Formula: Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash +- Represents total company value + +**EV/EBITDA** +- Formula: Enterprise Value / EBITDA +- EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization +- Capital structure neutral valuation metric + +**EV/Sales** +- Formula: Enterprise Value / Revenue +- Useful when comparing companies with different profitability + +**Dividend Yield** +- Formula: Annual Dividend Per Share / Stock Price × 100 +- Measures: Income return from stock + +## Growth Metrics + +**Revenue Growth Rate** +- Formula: (Current Revenue - Prior Revenue) / Prior Revenue × 100 +- YoY (Year-over-Year), QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) + +**Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth** +- Formula: (Current EPS - Prior EPS) / Prior EPS × 100 +- Track both reported and adjusted EPS + +**Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)** +- Formula: (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1/Years) - 1 +- Smoothed growth rate over multiple years + +## Liquidity Metrics + +**Current Ratio** +- Formula: Current Assets / Current Liabilities +- Measures: Short-term liquidity +- > 1.5 generally considered healthy + +**Quick Ratio (Acid-Test)** +- Formula: (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities +- More conservative than current ratio +- > 1.0 generally considered healthy + +**Cash Ratio** +- Formula: Cash and Cash Equivalents / Current Liabilities +- Most conservative liquidity measure + +## Leverage Metrics + +**Debt-to-Equity (D/E) Ratio** +- Formula: Total Debt / Total Equity +- Measures: Financial leverage +- Industry-dependent; lower generally safer + +**Debt-to-Assets Ratio** +- Formula: Total Debt / Total Assets +- Shows proportion of assets financed by debt + +**Interest Coverage Ratio** +- Formula: EBIT / Interest Expense +- Measures: Ability to pay interest +- > 2.5 generally considered safe + +## Efficiency Metrics + +**Asset Turnover** +- Formula: Revenue / Average Total Assets +- Measures: Efficiency in using assets to generate sales + +**Inventory Turnover** +- Formula: COGS / Average Inventory +- Higher = more efficient inventory management + +**Receivables Turnover** +- Formula: Revenue / Average Accounts Receivable +- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) = 365 / Receivables Turnover + +## Cash Flow Metrics + +**Free Cash Flow (FCF)** +- Formula: Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures +- Available cash for dividends, buybacks, debt repayment + +**FCF Yield** +- Formula: Free Cash Flow Per Share / Stock Price × 100 +- Similar to dividend yield but for total cash generation + +**Cash Conversion Rate** +- Formula: Free Cash Flow / Net Income +- Should be close to or > 100% +- Lower ratio may indicate earnings quality issues + +## Per Share Metrics + +**Earnings Per Share (EPS)** +- Formula: Net Income / Weighted Average Shares Outstanding +- Basic EPS vs Diluted EPS (includes options, convertibles) + +**Book Value Per Share** +- Formula: (Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares Outstanding + +**Cash Flow Per Share** +- Formula: Operating Cash Flow / Shares Outstanding + +## Share Metrics + +**Shares Outstanding** +- Total shares issued and held by investors +- Track dilution over time + +**Float** +- Shares available for public trading +- Excludes insider and restricted shares + +**Share Buybacks** +- Track net share reduction/increase +- Buybacks can boost EPS without earnings growth diff --git a/references/fundamental-analysis.md b/references/fundamental-analysis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..54fd81c --- /dev/null +++ b/references/fundamental-analysis.md @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ +# Fundamental Analysis Reference + +## Analysis Framework + +### 1. Business Quality Assessment + +**Competitive Advantages (Moats)** +- Brand strength +- Network effects +- Cost advantages +- Switching costs +- Patents and intellectual property +- Regulatory barriers + +**Management Quality** +- Track record of capital allocation +- Insider ownership +- Compensation structure alignment +- Communication transparency + +**Business Model** +- Revenue streams diversity +- Scalability +- Margin sustainability +- Customer concentration risk + +### 2. Financial Health Analysis + +**Profitability Analysis** +- Gross margin trends +- Operating margin trends +- Net margin trends +- Return on Equity (ROE) trends +- Return on Assets (ROA) trends +- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) trends + +**Growth Analysis** +- Revenue growth (YoY, QoQ) +- Earnings growth (YoY, QoQ) +- Free cash flow growth +- Market share trends +- Geographic/segment growth breakdown + +**Balance Sheet Strength** +- Debt-to-Equity ratio +- Current ratio +- Quick ratio +- Interest coverage ratio +- Cash position vs debt +- Working capital trends + +**Cash Flow Analysis** +- Operating cash flow consistency +- Free cash flow (OCF - CapEx) +- Cash conversion rate +- Capital expenditure trends +- Dividend sustainability + +### 3. Valuation Analysis + +**Relative Valuation Metrics** +- P/E ratio (vs historical, vs peers, vs sector) +- Forward P/E +- PEG ratio (P/E / growth rate) +- P/B ratio (Price-to-Book) +- P/S ratio (Price-to-Sales) +- EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value / EBITDA) +- EV/Sales + +**Absolute Valuation** +- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) principles +- Estimate intrinsic value range +- Margin of safety calculation + +### 4. Industry and Market Analysis + +**Industry Dynamics** +- Industry growth rate +- Industry lifecycle stage +- Competitive landscape +- Barriers to entry +- Regulatory environment +- Technological disruption risk + +**Market Position** +- Market share +- Competitive positioning +- Customer loyalty metrics +- Pricing power + +### 5. Risk Assessment + +**Company-Specific Risks** +- Key person dependency +- Customer concentration +- Supplier concentration +- Product concentration +- Litigation risks +- Regulatory risks + +**Market Risks** +- Economic sensitivity +- Interest rate sensitivity +- Currency exposure +- Commodity price exposure + +## Analysis Workflow + +1. **Understand the business** (what they do, how they make money) +2. **Assess competitive position** (moats, market share) +3. **Analyze financial statements** (trends over 3-5 years) +4. **Calculate key metrics** (profitability, growth, leverage) +5. **Compare to peers** (relative positioning) +6. **Value the company** (multiple approaches) +7. **Identify risks** (company and market level) +8. **Determine investment thesis** (bull and bear cases) + +## Red Flags to Watch For + +- Declining margins +- Consistently negative or declining free cash flow +- Rising debt without revenue growth +- Frequent non-GAAP adjustments +- High executive turnover +- Customer concentration > 10% from single customer +- Inconsistent accounting changes +- Poor cash conversion (earnings growth >> cash flow growth) +- Deteriorating working capital +- Rising accounts receivable/inventory faster than revenue diff --git a/references/report-template.md b/references/report-template.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a194962 --- /dev/null +++ b/references/report-template.md @@ -0,0 +1,207 @@ +# Stock Analysis Report Template + +## Report Structure + +### 1. Executive Summary +Brief 2-3 paragraph overview that can stand alone: +- Company overview (1 sentence) +- Investment thesis (bull case in 2-3 sentences) +- Key risks (1-2 sentences) +- Valuation summary (current vs fair value estimate) +- Recommendation (Buy/Hold/Sell) with conviction level + +### 2. Company Overview +- **Business Description**: What the company does, main products/services +- **Industry**: Sector classification and industry dynamics +- **Market Position**: Market cap, rank in industry +- **Key Statistics**: Quick reference table + - Ticker, Exchange + - Market Cap + - Current Price + - 52-Week Range + - Average Volume + +### 3. Investment Thesis +**Bull Case** (Why to invest): +- 3-5 strongest positive factors +- Support each with data/evidence +- Quantify when possible + +**Bear Case** (Risks and concerns): +- 3-5 main risk factors +- Alternative scenarios where investment doesn't work +- Probability assessment when possible + +### 4. Fundamental Analysis + +**Business Quality** +- Competitive advantages/moats +- Management quality assessment +- Business model sustainability + +**Financial Performance** (Use tables for clarity) +- Revenue trends (3-5 years) +- Profitability metrics trends +- Balance sheet strength +- Cash flow analysis +- Key ratios + +**Growth Analysis** +- Historical growth rates +- Growth drivers +- Future growth prospects +- Market opportunity size + +### 5. Valuation Analysis + +**Current Valuation Metrics** (Table format) +- P/E (current, forward, 5-year avg) +- PEG +- P/B +- P/S +- EV/EBITDA +- EV/Sales +- Dividend Yield (if applicable) + +**Peer Comparison** (Table format) +Compare key metrics against 3-5 direct competitors + +**Fair Value Estimate** +- Valuation methodology used +- Key assumptions +- Fair value range (conservative to optimistic) +- Margin of safety vs current price +- Target price with timeframe + +### 6. Technical Analysis + +**Trend Analysis** +- Current trend direction +- Key support/resistance levels +- Moving average positions + +**Indicator Summary** +- RSI reading and interpretation +- MACD status +- Volume trends +- Other relevant indicators + +**Chart Patterns** +- Notable patterns forming or completed +- Breakout/breakdown levels to watch + +**Technical Outlook** +- Short-term (1-3 months) +- Medium-term (3-6 months) + +### 7. Risk Assessment + +**Company-Specific Risks** (Prioritized) +1. [Highest risk with impact and probability] +2. [Second risk] +3. [Third risk] + +**Market/Macro Risks** +- Economic sensitivity +- Interest rate impact +- Regulatory changes +- Industry disruption + +**Risk Mitigation** +- Company's risk management +- Diversification considerations +- Position sizing recommendations + +### 8. Catalysts and Timeline + +**Positive Catalysts** (with expected timing) +- Upcoming events that could drive price up +- Product launches, earnings, regulatory approvals + +**Negative Risks** (with timing) +- Events that could drive price down +- Lockup expirations, debt maturities + +### 9. Recommendation + +**Rating**: Buy / Hold / Sell +**Conviction Level**: High / Medium / Low +**Target Price**: $XX (timeframe: X months) +**Upside/Downside**: +/-XX% + +**For Buy Recommendations**: +- Entry strategy (all at once, DCA, wait for pullback) +- Position sizing suggestion +- Stop-loss consideration +- Target prices (multiple levels) + +**For Hold Recommendations**: +- Conditions to upgrade to Buy +- Conditions to downgrade to Sell +- Monitoring priorities + +**For Sell Recommendations**: +- Exit strategy (immediate, gradual) +- Alternative investments to consider + +### 10. Conclusion +- Summarize key points (3-4 bullets) +- Reiterate recommendation +- Next review date or monitoring triggers + +--- + +## Formatting Guidelines + +**Use Tables for:** +- Financial data comparisons +- Peer comparisons +- Key statistics +- Valuation metrics + +**Use Bullet Points for:** +- Lists of factors/risks +- Key highlights +- Qualitative assessments + +**Use Headers to:** +- Clearly separate sections +- Make report scannable +- Enable quick navigation + +**Data Presentation:** +- Always include timeframe context +- Show trends (arrows, YoY%) +- Cite sources for all data +- Use consistent formatting (e.g., $B for billions) + +**Writing Style:** +- Be direct and concise +- Quantify when possible +- Avoid jargon unless necessary +- Support opinions with evidence +- Balance bullish and bearish perspectives + +## Comparison Report Structure + +For "Compare Stock A vs Stock B" requests: + +### 1. Side-by-Side Overview Table +Company metrics in columns for easy comparison + +### 2. Relative Strengths Analysis +- Where each company excels +- Quantified advantages + +### 3. Valuation Comparison +- Metrics comparison table +- Which appears cheaper and why + +### 4. Technical Comparison +- Relative strength analysis +- Chart pattern comparison + +### 5. Recommendation +- Which to buy/prefer and why +- Portfolio allocation suggestion +- Risk-adjusted return assessment diff --git a/references/technical-analysis.md b/references/technical-analysis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..65432a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/references/technical-analysis.md @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +# Technical Analysis Reference + +## Key Technical Indicators + +### Trend Indicators + +**Moving Averages (MA)** +- SMA (Simple Moving Average): Average price over N periods +- EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Weighted towards recent prices +- Common periods: 20-day, 50-day, 200-day +- Golden Cross: 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA (bullish) +- Death Cross: 50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA (bearish) + +**MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)** +- MACD Line: 12-day EMA - 26-day EMA +- Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD +- Histogram: MACD - Signal +- Bullish: MACD crosses above signal line +- Bearish: MACD crosses below signal line + +### Momentum Indicators + +**RSI (Relative Strength Index)** +- Range: 0-100 +- Overbought: > 70 +- Oversold: < 30 +- Divergence: Price makes new high/low but RSI doesn't (reversal signal) + +**Stochastic Oscillator** +- %K and %D lines +- Range: 0-100 +- Overbought: > 80 +- Oversold: < 20 + +### Volatility Indicators + +**Bollinger Bands** +- Middle Band: 20-day SMA +- Upper Band: Middle + (2 × standard deviation) +- Lower Band: Middle - (2 × standard deviation) +- Squeeze: Bands narrow (low volatility, potential breakout) +- Expansion: Bands widen (high volatility) + +**ATR (Average True Range)** +- Measures volatility +- Higher ATR = higher volatility +- Used for stop-loss placement + +### Volume Indicators + +**OBV (On-Balance Volume)** +- Cumulative volume indicator +- Rising OBV + rising price = strong uptrend +- Divergence between OBV and price = potential reversal + +**Volume Moving Average** +- Compare current volume to average +- High volume breakout = stronger signal + +## Chart Patterns + +### Reversal Patterns +- Head and Shoulders (bearish) +- Inverse Head and Shoulders (bullish) +- Double Top (bearish) +- Double Bottom (bullish) + +### Continuation Patterns +- Flags and Pennants +- Triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical) +- Rectangles + +## Support and Resistance + +**Support**: Price level where buying pressure prevents further decline +**Resistance**: Price level where selling pressure prevents further rise + +**Key Levels to Identify:** +- Previous highs and lows +- Round numbers (psychological levels) +- Moving averages +- Fibonacci retracement levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) + +## Analysis Workflow + +1. **Identify the trend** (uptrend, downtrend, sideways) +2. **Locate support/resistance levels** +3. **Check multiple timeframes** (daily, weekly, monthly) +4. **Confirm with indicators** (don't rely on single indicator) +5. **Look for divergences** (price vs indicators) +6. **Assess volume** (confirms trend strength) +7. **Identify chart patterns** +8. **Determine risk/reward ratio**