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Author SHA1 Message Date
ruv 1490278176 feat(intelligence): BEIR matrix + bootstrap CIs + 2nd dataset (ADR-086, 3.10.26)
Took the "release hype → benchmark infrastructure" feedback to the wire.
This release IS the infrastructure, not the rank.

What ships:
  - docs/benchmarks/BEIR-MATRIX.md  — dataset × pipeline × metric grid with
    bootstrap CIs and pipeline disclosure (direct dense, no fine-tune,
    no rerank)
  - scripts/beir-bootstrap-significance.mjs  — paired bootstrap, 10k
    resamples, mulberry32 seed=42, reports CI overlap vs each baseline
  - perQuery metrics now saved in every run JSON (for external bootstrap
    verification by anyone)
  - ADR-085 hedged ("TOP-2 on BEIR NFCorpus, not BEIR average"; "Best
    Listed Baseline"; "direct dense, no fine-tune, no rerank")
  - ADR-086 documents the silent-fallback bug story + bootstrap method
    + the two-dataset honest picture
  - 2 ruvector issues filed upstream (ruvnet/ruvector#523, #524)

Honest two-dataset picture (95% CIs, 10k bootstrap):

| Dataset  | nDCG@10 | 95% CI         | Rank  | vs BM25                |
|----------|--------:|----------------|------:|------------------------|
| NFCorpus |  0.352  | [0.317, 0.387] |  2/11 | +0.027 (n.s.)          |
| SciFact  |  0.626  | [0.577, 0.672] | 10/11 | -0.053 (p<0.05) LOSS   |

User's acceptance test "ruflo beats BM25 on both" FAILS on SciFact —
we significantly lose to BM25 there (CI excludes baseline). On NFCorpus,
only SBERT msmarco (Δ +0.080) and ColBERT (Δ +0.047) are statistically
significant wins; the "rank-2" gap to SPLADE++ et al is within sampling
noise (CI overlaps).

Two-dataset mean: ours 0.489, BM25 0.502, SPLADE++ 0.526, BGE-large 0.551.
We're below BM25 on the mean. BGE-base zero-shot is competent on
NFCorpus (medical IR), weak on SciFact (fact-verification with rare
scientific terms favouring lexical retrieval). This validates the user's
"single-dataset wins don't generalise" critique with our own numbers.

The release is honest infrastructure, not a SOTA claim.

Co-Authored-By: RuFlo <ruv@ruv.net>
2026-05-30 16:48:38 -04:00