Completes and supersedes the 2026-07-09 directional DoE (which was 25/27 cells, had
no F-test, and — the reproducibility gap found this session — never persisted its raw
data). Re-run full under the CRIT-2 design (N=5 stochastic replicates of fixed item
A1-inRange, real within-cell error term), qwen local $0 + anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5
+ anthropic/claude-opus-4.8 via OpenRouter. $1.538 total, well under the $11 budget.
Results (real main-effects ANOVA, 135 observations, first real data the aggregator
has ever consumed — previously stub-only):
- scaffold: none 1.000 >> plan-and-solve 0.311 >> reflexion 0.067
F(2,108)=218.9, p=1.0e-38, 71.9% of variance — DOMINANT and strongly NEGATIVE.
Both scaffolds DROP. retort's "more harness lowers reliability", now overwhelming.
- model: qwen3-coder:30b 0.644 > haiku-4.5 0.400 > opus-4.8 0.333
F(2,108)=25.1, p=1.1e-9 — local qwen best & free; opus 5x+ cost = negative value.
(Complete 27/27 reverses the prior unequal-n haiku>opus>qwen ordering, significantly.)
- retrieval: off 0.480 > on 0.433 F(1,108)=1.5, p=0.22 NOT significant, slightly
negative — the ADR-118 flywheel feature-on-trial formally fails as `beads`.
EXPLAINED by the 2026-07-10 coupling finding: A1-inRange is a no-headroom item
the models know cold, so a retrieved exemplar has nothing to add.
- prompt: TDD 0.533 > ATDD 0.467 > neutral 0.378 F(2,108)=5.7, p=4.5e-3.
Changes:
- scripts/doe-run.ts: cloud path rewired from raw Anthropic fetch to OpenRouter
(vendor/model ids, opus-4.8 not opus-4-7, exact per-call cost from usage.cost).
- docs/implementation/doe-run-2026-07-10.jsonl: raw per-cell data persisted IN-REPO
(fixes the gap that lost the 2026-07-09 run's data).
- DOE-HARNESS-SCREEN-DESIGN.md §Results (DEFINITIVE) + ADR-122 status/history updated;
prior directional run retained, marked SUPERSEDED.
Verified: tsc 0 errors; $0 --stub and --smoke pipelines green before the metered run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Dragan Spiridonov
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