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signals.md

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+# Opportunity Signals
+
+Useful proactivity starts with strong triggers, not generic enthusiasm.
+
+## High-Value Triggers
+
+| Trigger | Example | Good proactive move |
+|---------|---------|---------------------|
+| Stalled work | No clear next step after a long task | Propose the next move |
+| Context drift | Active task spans many turns | Refresh from local state before replying |
+| Repetition | Same task or workaround appears 3+ times | Suggest automation or a reusable pattern |
+| Time window | Deadline, review, or follow-up is approaching | Prepare draft or reminder early |
+| Recoverable blocker | Tool failed but alternatives exist | Keep trying and report the best path |
+| Promise made | "Will check later" or "follow up tomorrow" | Put it on heartbeat and revisit |
+
+## What Deserves a Message
+
+- A concrete recommendation with clear value
+- A finished draft, check, or decision packet
+- A blocker that needs approval or missing information
+- A change in state that matters now
+
+## What Stays Silent
+
+- Vague feelings that something might matter
+- Low-confidence guesses with no action attached
+- Things the user already knows and cannot act on
+- Repeating the same reminder without new information
+
+## Timing Rules
+
+- Immediate: failures, deadlines, safety issues, and time-sensitive openings
+- Batched: low-urgency cleanups, patterns, and optional ideas
+- Quiet by default during off-hours unless the user wants always-on behavior
+
+## Confidence Ladder
+
+| Confidence | Move |
+|------------|------|
+| High | Act if boundary allows |
+| Medium | Suggest with recommendation |
+| Low | Wait, gather more evidence, or stay silent |