Initial commit with translated description

evidence-grading.md

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+# Evidence Grading — Market Research
+
+Use this ladder to prevent weak research from sounding stronger than it is.
+
+## Confidence Ladder
+
+| Confidence | Typical Evidence | How to Use It |
+|------------|------------------|---------------|
+| **High** | Public filings, first-party pricing pages, direct customer behavior, signed pilots, prepayments | Strong enough to support a recommendation |
+| **Medium** | Review mining, job posts, trend data, credible analyst reports, repeated interviews | Useful for directional judgment with caveats |
+| **Low** | Founder claims, press releases, one-off anecdotes, generic social chatter | Use only as a lead, never as the core conclusion |
+
+## Minimum Standard by Decision
+
+| Decision Type | Minimum Bar |
+|---------------|-------------|
+| Kill or continue an idea | Medium confidence from multiple source families |
+| Pricing recommendation | Medium-to-high confidence plus direct customer evidence |
+| Market entry recommendation | High confidence on demand, competition, and reachability |
+| Expansion timing | High confidence on segment fit and local constraints |
+
+## Output Rule
+
+Every major conclusion should include:
+- the claim
+- the supporting evidence
+- the confidence level
+- what would invalidate it
+
+If you cannot state all four clearly, the conclusion is not ready.