31 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
31 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
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# Evidence Grading — Market Research
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Use this ladder to prevent weak research from sounding stronger than it is.
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## Confidence Ladder
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| Confidence | Typical Evidence | How to Use It |
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|------------|------------------|---------------|
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| **High** | Public filings, first-party pricing pages, direct customer behavior, signed pilots, prepayments | Strong enough to support a recommendation |
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| **Medium** | Review mining, job posts, trend data, credible analyst reports, repeated interviews | Useful for directional judgment with caveats |
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| **Low** | Founder claims, press releases, one-off anecdotes, generic social chatter | Use only as a lead, never as the core conclusion |
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## Minimum Standard by Decision
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| Decision Type | Minimum Bar |
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|---------------|-------------|
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| Kill or continue an idea | Medium confidence from multiple source families |
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| Pricing recommendation | Medium-to-high confidence plus direct customer evidence |
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| Market entry recommendation | High confidence on demand, competition, and reachability |
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| Expansion timing | High confidence on segment fit and local constraints |
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## Output Rule
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Every major conclusion should include:
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- the claim
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- the supporting evidence
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- the confidence level
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- what would invalidate it
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If you cannot state all four clearly, the conclusion is not ready.
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