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metric-contracts.md

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+# Metric Contracts
+
+Use this when a KPI, dashboard tile, or report number could be interpreted in more than one way.
+
+## Contract Template
+
+Capture each metric in this order before trusting comparisons:
+
+1. Business question the metric is meant to answer.
+2. Entity and grain: user, account, order, session, day, week, month.
+3. Numerator and denominator with exact inclusion logic.
+4. Filters and exclusions: internal traffic, refunds, test accounts, paused users.
+5. Time window, timezone, and refresh cadence.
+6. Source of truth and owner.
+7. Known caveats, version changes, and safe interpretation range.
+
+## Minimum Contract Output
+
+| Field | Example |
+|-------|---------|
+| Metric | Paid conversion rate |
+| Question | Is onboarding quality improving? |
+| Grain | weekly |
+| Numerator | first paid subscriptions |
+| Denominator | qualified onboarding starts |
+| Filters | excludes employees and QA accounts |
+| Timezone | UTC |
+| Source | warehouse.subscriptions_daily |
+| Owner | Growth lead |
+| Caveat | Launch week excluded because tracking was partial |
+
+## Stop Conditions
+
+Do not present a metric as stable if:
+
+- Numerator or denominator changed between periods.
+- Source ownership is unclear.
+- Filters were applied ad hoc and not documented.
+- Time windows or timezones differ across comparisons.
+- A dashboard label hides a formula change.
+
+## Fast Questions to Ask
+
+- "What exactly counts in the numerator?"
+- "Who is excluded and why?"
+- "What is the comparison baseline?"
+- "Has this definition changed over time?"
+- "Who would dispute this number internally?"