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WaterrrForever 3b65321a20 feat(cli): classify identity persistence on every telemetry event (#3065)
* feat(cli): classify identity persistence on every telemetry event

Install-grain metrics currently trust every anonymousId equally, but
ephemeral/isolated-HOME workloads mint a fresh id per run — one machine
produced 2,956 rotating render identities since Jul 30 (94.4% seen on a
single render command), inflating acquisition and diluting per-install
penetration while looking like real product usage.

Every event now carries:

- identity_persistence: durable (id loaded from a preexisting config —
  proven to survive a process boundary) | unknown (minted+persisted this
  run; an ephemeral HOME is indistinguishable from a genuine first run
  from inside one process) | process_only (persist failed). Sticky per
  process so a fresh install re-reading its own write cannot self-promote.
- config_write_outcome: ok | ok_unmirrored | failed for the identity-
  establishing write; absent when the id came from disk.
- invocation_id: random uuid per CLI process, so one invocation's events
  group even when the install identity is untrustworthy (unlike run_id,
  which needs an orchestrator to set HYPERFRAMES_RUN_ID).

Install metrics can then count only durable identities, and a daily
churn monitor can alert on the unknown share.

* fix(cli): require the anonymousId to come off disk before classifying durable

Review finding: materializeConfig mints a replacement anonymousId when a
hand-edited/image-baked config lacks one. That replacement only reaches
disk when the bucket-seed backfill happens to write; with a seed present
the read path performs no write at all, so the install re-mints a fresh
id every run while the unconditional durable branch stamped each of them
with the one label durable-only counting is allowed to trust.

durable now requires parseNonEmptyString(parsed.anonymousId): a minted
replacement classifies like a fresh mint — by the backfill write outcome
when that path runs (unknown/process_only), and process_only on the
no-write path where the id provably dies with the process. Two tests pin
both shapes.
2026-08-06 22:19:14 +08:00
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